Discussion paper: "Co-developing beliefs and social influence networks – towards understanding Brexit"

Centre for Policy Modelling Discussion paper: CPM-17-235

Abstract.

A relatively simple model is presented where the beliefs of agents and their social network co-develop. Agents can either hold or not each of a fixed menu of candidate beliefs. Depending on their type, agents have different coherency functions between beliefs, so that they are more likely to adopt a belief from a neighbour or drop a belief where this increases the total coherency of their belief set. With given probabilities links are randomly dropped or added but, if possible, links are made to a “friend of a friend”. The outcomes when both belief and link change processes occur are qualitatively different from either alone, showing the necessity of representing both cognitive and social processes together. Some example results are shown which moves a little towards modelling the processes behind divisive collective decisions, such as the Brexit vote.

Downloads

• The paper can be downloaded at: http://cfpm.org/file_download/177/BE-co-evolving+belliefs+and+social+network-AISB08.pdf
• The model can be accessed at: http://www.openabm.org/model/5116
• Some slides that discuss the model are at: https://www.slideshare.net/BruceEdmonds/a-model-of-social-and-cognitive-coherence